You can contact the author (Teguh Hidayat) by email, teguh.idx@gmail.com. The author live in Jakarta, Indonesia.

See my pictures in Instagram, @teguhidx.

Tips for Investors: Have a Mentor!

Some time ago I received the question as follows, 'Mr. Teguh, if I read from your writings, it seems that you take Warren Buffett as your only role model. Why Sir? Is it because he is the richest compared to any other investors? While in fact, there are many other investors who, although not as rich as WB, but they had better investment returns, such as Joel Greenblatt, Carl Icahn, Peter Lynch, and so on.’

Repo Cases in Indonesian Stocks

According to Investopedia, the repurchase agreement, or repo, is an agreement between two parties in which the first party borrows some funds from the second party with certain securities as collaterals, such as stocks, bonds, or government securities, with the promise that the first party would buy back the collaterals (thus the second party will get their money back). Usually the value of the loan is lower than the value of the collateral, for example A borrows Rp100,000,000 from B with 100,000 shares of X as collateral, at a price of Rp1,000 per share (so the loan value is Rp100 million), while the stock price of X in the market was higher at Rp1,500. In theory, if A later can not repay the debt, then B could just sell the shares of X that he holds in the market, so he will still make 50% profit.

Bumi Resources: Settlement for Debt Maturity Extension

This morning, Bumi Resources (BUMI) released an announcement on the IDX website (www.idx.co.id) entitled ‘Debt Exchange’. A friend who read the announcement was shocked: What debt? When BUMI did its right issue, last month, doesn’t it mean that all of their debt problems were settled??

The Visit of Saudi Arabian King, Aramco IPO, Oil Prices, and.. Coal?

As we know, King Salman of Saudi Arabia is currently visiting Indonesia for nine days (March 1 – 9, 2017). And if we look at the fact that it was the first visit of Saudi Arabian King in Indonesia in the last 47 years, then it must be a special visit, and even the King will stay here for no less than nine days straight. The question, what’s so special about the visit?

Prospect of Coal, Compared to Other Commodities

Some time ago a friend complained, ‘Dear Sir, I wonder why the shares of Elnusa (ELSA) keep falling? While on the other hand, I heard that the price of oil rose high’ (FYI, ELSA is a oil drilling service company). Well, if I received question like that, then my answer is usually normative, ‘Related to why the stock goes down, I do not know, but the fundamentals of ELSA are not so good in the first place, so the stock is not worth to buy. Also, the rise in oil prices may have no effect to the company’s financial performance, because even when the oil prices were high in 2011, still ELSA suffered losses in that year.’

'News Framing' in Stock Investing

In the field of journalism, ‘news framing’ is a method used by the media in conveying a news, information, or facts of a particular event, in order to influence the perception or impression from the public about the news or the people in it. In other words, news framing is a method of public opinion making, where the exact same piece of news, events, or someone’s statements can create several different perceptions from its readers, depending on how the media/journalist in delivering the words.

Domestic Investors vs International Fund Managers

If you open IDX website today (www.idx.co.id), you will find the news that at the end of 2016, domestic investors owned about 45.5% of all outstanding stocks in the market, while the other 54.5% were belonged to foreigners/international stockholders. Although the Indonesian Stock Exchange was still dominated by foreign investors, but the ownership of 45.5% of domestic investors was the highest in the last ten years or longer. Previously, between 2007 and 2015, the local investors owned about only 33 – 41% of all outstanding stocks in the market.

Why Do We Have To Invest in Stocks?

In one occasion, I once said that if you are still in doubt with the direction of Jakarta Composite Index (JCI), especially since the market is still quiet from the sentiment, then you can just wait outside aka hold the cash, so your portfolio will be safe from the possibility of a certain negative sentiment within the next two or three months that could drag down the JCI (thus your stock dropped), but on the other hand you might miss the opportunity to buy your stocks at good price if it turns out that the JCI immediately move up. At the end, nobody could predict the market, right? Especially in the short term like that.

Market Outlook for 2017

Until Monday, January 9, the trading volume on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) is fairly low with an average transaction value of only Rp5.25 trillion (US$ 400 million) per day since the beginning of the year, or far below the usual Rp6 - 7 trillion (about US$ 450 – 550 million) per day. This situation may raise the question: What’s happening? Actually the stock market is usually crowded with transaction at the beginning of the year, is not it? Then how about the outlook for Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) for the year 2017? Okay, let’s talk about it.

Return of 35% Auto Reject Rule, and Its Impact on Market

The Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) opens the year of 2017 with a 0.4% drop to 5,276 on Tuesday, January 3, yesterday. But what might be interesting is that on that day, there were some stocks that fell by more than 10%, say Atlas Resources (ARII) which slashed 25% from 520 to 390, in just one day! Later on Wednesday, January 4, it was Semen Baturaja (SMBR) which crushed down 24.8%. This is interesting because, as we know, under the rules of the Stock Exchange, any stock can only fall for a maxium 10% in a day. So whether the regulation has changed? And if so, then how will it impacts the JCI?

Between Stock Investors, and National Heroes

Shortly after the Proclamation of Indonesian Independence on August 17, 1945, Sudirman, then a PETA commander (‘Pembela Tanah Air’, or ‘defenders of homeland’, a military organization formed by the Imperial Government of Japan in Indonesia), rushed to Jakarta to meet President Sukarno to express his support for the establishment of Republic of Indonesia (RI). On October 5 in the same year, the Government of Indonesia formed the People's Security Army (Tentara Keamanan Rakjat, TKR) which became the forerunner of the Indonesian National Army (Tentara Nasional Indonesia, TNI), and on November 12, TKR members made their first general meeting to choose who would be their top leader. Sudirman, then 29, was elected as military chief, with the rank of colonel.

The Prospect of Property Stocks

The Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) rose 1.4% to 5,910 on its first trading day after the Ied holiday, thus it has risen 11.6% for year to date, or quite significant, and this is in line with our analysis at the beginning of the year (you can read again the article here). But as in previous years, there are always stocks in certain sectors that missed the train (read: also rising, but not as high as JCI), or even dropped.

Have You Evaluated Yourself?

Li Ka-shing, a business magnate from Hongkong who once became the richest person in Asia, had an accident in 1996 when his oldest son, Victor Li, was abducted by a gangster named Cheung Tze-keung, and the gangster demanded a ransom at HK$2 million. Instead of calling the police, Mr. Li granted the kidnapper’s wish by giving the ransom demanded.

I Missed the Train! What Should I Do?

In the mid of September, 2016, one of the most popular blue chips known by the investors, which was Jasa Marga (JSMR), suddenly fell rapidly to 4,500’s, the position was its lowest in the recent year, whereas its fundamental did not have any problem at all (On the semester I of 2016, the income of JSMR grew 44%). And then the reason JSMR could fall rapidly that of the right issue. Then the question, was it a valuable opportunity? And if the answer was yes, then at what price we could buy JSMR?

The Outlook of Coal Stocks: Update

Two months ago, more precisely in the first week of October, I noticed the price of coal, in this case the benchmark coal price of Newcastle Australia, which previously was falling down to US$ 53 each ton in the beginning of 2016, it began to rerise to US$ 72. After I had considered some analytical reasons, I inferred the rise might continue in the long term, and as a result I chose one among the coal stocks that according to me was a great stock, it was Harum Energy (HRUM), its price was 1,050 (you may reread the analysis here).

The Importance of Screening the Information

On November 4, 2016, as we knew, there was a massive demonstration in Jakarta involving hundreds of thousands of people who demanded the inactive Governor of Jakarta, Basuki Tjahaja Purnama alias Ahok, to be processed for suspected religion blasphemy. And as usual, when there is a national incident then the social media with internet forums are full of opinions and comments from the sudden analysts, and Facebook instantaneously becomes full of pro – contra debates whether Ahok is guilty or not.

KMI Wire & Cable

It is late October, and it is the time for investors to reevaluate financial performances of the companies and to seek ‘the hidden pearl’ or stocks which have good fundamental but get poor valuations. Nah, in this article we discuss one of the ‘precious stocks’, which I have already discovered some moments ago, and luckily its fundamental performance is still great.

IDX to Remove the Lower Limit of 10%?

This week there are many announcements saying the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) will set up the trading rule of symmetrical auto rejection (AR), from the current asymmetric. The announcements spread as The Director of Transaction Monitoring and Obedience, Hamdi Hassyarbaini, said to the reporters on August 30th that since the Indonesian stock market has become stable as Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) rose significantly, it does not need to apply the asymmetric AR rule anymore. Now, you might be wondering, what is symmetrical AR? What is asymmetric AR?

Understanding ‘Market Hype’, and Its Effect on JCI

In mid of July 2016, the world was overwhelmed by the Pokemon GO release, it became a hit instantaneously as the game was different with its usual release since the player would play it on the screen all-day, Pokemon GO let their players to play outside and walk anywhere. Because of its great fame, people who never knew the Pokemon video game (Pokemon as a game had been released since late 1990’s, Pokemon GO was its latest version), downloaded the game out of curiosity, and played it on their phones. Eventually, in less than a month after the release, Pokemon GO has been played by 45 million people worldwide.

Understanding LQ45 Futures

On February 1st, 2016, the Indonesian Stock Exchange (IDX) with the Indonesian Clearing of Securities Underwriting or ICSU (Kliring Penjaminan Efek Indonesia, or KPEI) reactivated LQ45 Futures trading. LQ45 Futures trading had been enabled since 2001, but it was discontinued in 2009 for various reasons, and is now enabled again with some improved regulations. But the questions are what LQ45 Futures is? And how does it affect the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI)?

The Importance of an Investor’s Vision, Part 2

Okay, that was the first. The second is to have a future-oriented vision is useful when we use the value investing method itself. As we know, the job of a value investor is simple: find a good and cheap stock, then buy it, and then wait until its price goes up. Meanwhile, if you don’t find those two criteria (good and cheap, because we are usually in a condition where all good stocks are expensive), so you have to wait, alias keep your cash.

The Importance of an Investor’s Vision

In 2005, I was still a student of the third year at the campus of the Department of Statistics, Padjadjaran University (Unpad) Bandung. Then a friend of the same generation on campus, named Ivan, invited me to join the student association, Himpunan Mahasiswa Statistika (Himasta) Unpad. Previously they chose Ivan as the vice head of the Himasta, and he was building his team by recruiting other students, including me, to join the Himasta. Then, I was wondering, ‘What will I do in Himasta? I dislike joining an organization.’

PP Properti

With the sluggish economic growth throughout 2015, most companies in BEI had decreased performances or even suffered losses. However, some of them, such as PT PP Properti Tbk (PPRO), are still in growth momentum. Until September 2015, PPRO earned net profit of Rp206 billion, it skyrocketed four times over the same period in 2014.

Suggested Books for Value Investor

One of the questions people often asked, if I want to learn about stock investing, especially the method of value investing, then what books you are recommend the most? And I think that’s a good question, which shows that ones are eager to learn before start buying stocks. Because it is impossible for a soldier to enter the battlefield without any weapons, right?

Bumi Resources Minerals

In October 25, 2016, in this blog we've talked about one of the most phenomenal stock in the history of stock market in Indonesia, Bumi Resources (BUMI), which suddenly jumped from Rp82 to Rp123 per share, in just two trading days. However, after considering the rise in coal prices, plus the company’s plan to convert its debt into shares (which was then approved by the creditors), we concluded that BUMI is very attractive because it is still likely to rise further. You can read the analysis in here.