Consulting: Shares Buyback, Dividends, and the News of Companies

1. Hi Mr. Teguh, I heard that Semen Baturaja (SMBR) would conduct the buyback of shares. What is it? And how it affects the performance of the company?

On September 17, 2013, management of SMBR announced that if needed, they are ready to buy back the company’s shares in the stock exchange, in order to keep the stock price to remain stable. This decision was a response after at the end of August 2013, the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) tumbled down while the stock price of SMBR dropped from 560 to 360. The amount of funds to do the buyback is maximum Rp102 billion, which is taken from the company's cash deposits (as of Second Quarter 2013, SMBR had cash of more than Rp1.5 trillion, as result of its IPO).

How to Read the News about Companies

Saturday the 26th of November, 2011, a large bridge that crosses the Mahakam River in Kutai Kartanegara (Kukar) Regency, East Kalimantan Province, suddenly collapsed, and killed at least 40 people. But for investors in the stock market, it is not the number of victim that matters, or who are the incompetent developer that responsible for the bridge construction. But, which companies that had its operations disrupted due to the incident? Because as we all know, Kukar is a working area of many coal mining and oil palm plantation companies, and some of which are listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX).

For investors who have memorized the way of working of natural resources companies, especially coal company, the collapse of the bridge could mean that the shipment of coal from the location of mine to the harbor through Mahakam river will be blocked by the wreckage, and that means a negative sentiment for the related stock.

Bank BTPN: Best Bank so Far

Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional (BTPN), or you may call it the National Bank of Pensionary Fund, is a bank belonged to a giant private equity fund, Texas Pacific Group (TPG), which is managed by its Indonesian partner, Northstar Equity Partners (Northstar). TPG acquired the Bank on March 14, 2008, or just two days after the company's listing on the Stock Exchange. By Northstar, the Bank entered a new business venture, namely the small medium enterprises (SME) banking and financing, while still running its original business of pensionary credit and financing.

In Indonesia, the leader in SME financing business is Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI), or you may called People’s Bank of Indonesia, and several other banks. But the banking services in Indonesia, including that of BBRI, only able to reach about one-third of all SMEs throughout the archipelago. So in this case, BTPN does not need to compete with BBRI to enter the SME banking business, as its market is still wide open. According to data from the Ministry of Cooperatives and SMEs, until the end of 2011, there were approximately 55 million unit of SMEs in Indonesia, and is predicted to continue to grow. BTPN itself estimates that there are about 15 million SMEs in Indonesia, which are potential to be their clients.

The Jackpot Stocks!

In the last two years I found an interesting fact in the market, where there are some stocks which are fundamentally good, with reasonable or even undervalue price, but their price movement are slow. Within a few months, these stocks sometimes just moving around at narrow range. For example, if at the beginning of January the stock was in position of 1,000, then at the end of June he would still in the position of the 1000's. But in a particular time between January to June, the stock might suddenly rose significantly, perhaps up to 2,000 or 2,500 in just one or two months, before then turning back to 1,000. So in this case, investors who buy the shares at the price of 1,000, then sell it at the price of 2,000, you may say that he has gained the jackpot.

But you should not think that the 'jackpot' could happen every day. Sometimes the investors have to wait long enough, could for months, just to get a single jackpot a year. Some lucky ones may obtain the jackpot quickly, where he bought the stock on Monday, then it is skyrocketed on Tuesday. But some others may have to wait for months, sometimes with some shakes during the course (instead of skyrocketed the stock was down first).

Ace Hardware Indonesia

If we talking about Ace Hardware, what comes to your mind when you hear the word of 'Ace Hardware'? For me, I will answer: 'That is the name of a big store, which I often stopping by to look around, but almost never buy anything'. The reason is, although it must be admitted that Ace Hardware store sells unique and good quality items that are not available in the other stores, but most of these items are not so necessary for the daily needs. For example, do you need a set of barbeque grill tool for backyard party at your house? Well, if your house has a backyard, then maybe you do. But really, how many houses in Jakarta which has a backyard? This is a crowded city, you know?

On the other hand, if you have a big house in elite area like Menteng, Pondok Indah, or Pantai Indah Kapuk, then the barbeque grill tool was probably a must have item, and so it is with the other products that are sold at Ace Hardware. Yup, Ace Hardware, is not an ordinary retail store. They sell the products of home improvement, products that are specifically designed to improve the quality of your house, as the residence for you and your family. For example, in addition to the barbeque grill tools which mentioned above, you will find a wall clock with a design that is very, very fancy, at the Ace Hardware, even though the price is much more expensive than ordinary clock. But for some people, the clock price is commensurate with the ‘beautiful’ effect that is given to the overall interior appearance of the house.

Ekadharma International: A Small Cap but Fundamentally Good Stock

In the last few days I receive suggestions from several friends to discuss an unknown stock, but its fundamentals are good. This stock is Ekadharma International (EKAD). EKAD is a relatively small company with a market capitalization of only Rp227 billion at a price of 325. Although classified as a small cap stock, but its trading volume in the market is quite liquid with an average transaction of 4 million shares per day.

EKAD is a specialist manufacturer of adhesive tape (duct tape) and wrapping foil, with the brand 'Daimaru'. The company's factory is located in Pasar Kemis Industrial, Tangerang, while the company's distribution network is spread from Medan to Makassar. EKAD also had a side business in the field of printer cartridge refill service, but its contribution to company overall revenues is small. In addition to selling its products in the country, EKAD also exported adhesive tape to Malaysia adhesive.

Garuda Indonesia: Reborn

Since the shares are traded on the Indonesia Stock Exchange on February 11, 2011, Garuda Indonesia (GIAA) had never on my watchlist. The reason is simple: It is an overvalued stock which represents a poor company. But now, after more than a year, GIAA seemed to look pretty, and it’s not because of some make up or something. In the full year 2011, the company had 39.1% increase in revenue, and its net profit rose 56.1%, from Rp518 to 809 billion. Pretty enough to be taken? Actually, not yet, but probably soon.

GIAA is one of state-owned companies that had poor financial performance in the past. The company almost continuously recorded net loss from year to year so that causes a huge deficits on its balance sheet, which in turn causes a deficiency of capital. It was only in 2008, GIAA is no longer had deficiencies, but it was not due to an increase in performance, but because of the increase in paid-up capital. Until the company held an IPO in early 2011, GIAA is a poor company at all.

How to Analyze the Management of Company

What are the criteria that must be met by a company in order to produce maximum performance? The answer to that question can vary, but definitely, one of them is: A great and reliable management team. No matter how good a company, but if it is controlled and managed by incompetent people, then the result will definitely ugly. In relation to our investments in stocks, this is an important thing to note, considering small-minority holders do not have the power to appoint certain people to sit on the board of directors of the company, unless you are a large investor who can afford to buy a stock in large quantity, let say 20% of the paid-up capital (so that you become a major shareholder).

So what are the criteria of a good and trusthworthy management? Based on my experience, these criteria can be grouped into three parts. To put it simply, a company's management team can be said to be good and can be trusted, if they meet the three 'work':

1. Work hard
2. Work good, and
3. Work fair.

Confused? Okay, here's the explanation.

ICTSI Jasa Prima

ICTSI Jasa Prima (KARW), formerly known as Maharlika Indonesia, and before that was named Karwell Indonesia, since May 3, 2012, changed its name to ICTSI Jasa Prima, after the company was taken over by International Container Terminal Services, Inc. (ICTSI), a port service company from the Philippines. KARW business activities also changed from previously garment into port services. The corporate action is interesting, because currently there are expectations that the sector of infrastructure will be booming in the near future, and the port is indeed a part of infrastructure. Is ICTSI also have the same expectations, so that they then put their investment in Indonesia?

ICTSI acquires KARW on May 3, 2012, in Singapore through its subsidiary, ICTSI Far East (IFE), which IFE bought 469.7 million shares that representing 80% stake of KARW, with a purchase price of between Rp74 - 77 per share. Then , based on Bapepam regulation, IFE as the new controlling shareholder in KARW must conduct a mandatory tender offer to buy the remaining shares in the market, and this causes the stock continued to rise since last August.

Metrodata Electronics: Undervalue Stock

Every three months, every time the companies released their latest financial report, I used to search for stocks with good fundamentals (good company’s performance), while on the other hand its valuations are still low, or undervalue. If I cannot find any, usually when the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) is in its peak position as it is now, then the criterion is pushed down to one of which: 1. A good stock with a fair valuation (not overvalue), or 2. A not-too-bad stock but with low valuation. And here we go, Metrodata Electronics (MTDL) is a stock that if based on its performance in the nine months of 2012, and by its current price, can be classified as a stock with not-too-bad fundamental but with low valuation.

Bank Bukopin, and Acquisitions

Recently I received quite a lot of emails from friends asking about the stock of Bank Bukopin (BBKP). And after I checked, I found out why. Looks like some investors are bought this stock at prices above 700 per share, as influenced by the news that BBKP would be acquired by, if not by Bank BRI (BBRI), then it by Social Security (Jamsostek). Indeed, in August, BBKP stock soared from 640 to 760 because of the acquisition news. But later, BBKP was down and returned to the position of 640.

The cause of the decline is actually quite clear, namely because the management reiterated that they would not be acquired by any company, including BBRI. The management prefer to hold rights issue to augment its low-capital, with the Cooperative of Bulog Employees of Indonesia (Kopelindo, BBKP’ current majority owner) as the stand-by buyer. So BBKP is not being acquired by any company. But then there is news that BBKP cancel its rights issue, and prefer to sell subdebt worth Rp1 trillion to Social Security to increase their capital. I guess this is what makes the company's stock eventually dropped, because the news is confusing. So what they’re gonna do? Rights issue or subdebt? Or another option?

Forbes Not-so-Accurate List

If you were Aburizal ‘Ical’ Bakrie, what is your reaction when Forbes says if your wealth 'only' US$ 2.1 billion? If it was me, I would smile, are you kiddin’ me? Let see, when Bakrie & Brothers (BNBR) executing the right issue in 2008 alone, this parent company of the Bakrie Group obtained fresh fund of Rp40.1 trillion, or about US$ 4 billion. Not to mention the spate of rights issues, IPOs, from several other members of the Bakrie Seven Brothers, where the standby buyers are themselves. And outside of a few companies listed on the exchange, the Bakrie Group still has dozens of companies engaged in almost all business sectors.

Not only Ical (or precisely the Bakrie family, because in the Bakrie Group there are not only Ical, but also Nirwan, Indra, and Roosmania Bakrie), but the value of assets of other conglomerates may not be as 'small' as presented by Forbes. The figures presented by Forbes may seem very large (of course, who say that US$ 1 billion is a little money?), but in fact, it is possible that some of the entrepreneurs in the Forbes list have a much greater amount of wealth than mentioned.

Sierad Produce: Too Bad to be True

What is the staple food in Indonesia? The answer is definitely rice, unless you’re agree with the Minister of Agriculture who told the society to replace the rice with cassava (aw come on!). But what is everyone's favorite dishes? Believe it or not, the answer is chicken, whether it be fried, baked, or processed into sausages or nuggets. Yup, chicken is a favorite food of Indonesian people from all social status, ranging from factory workers to the owner of the factory itself. The taste is so delicious and the price is more affordable than other types of meat, causing the demand for chicken is always increases over time, in line with the growth of population.

Because the chicken business is always prospective, would not be surprised if local poultry companies almost always recorded brilliant financial performance. You name it, Charoen Pokphand Indonesia (CPIN), Japfa Comfeed (JPFA), Malindo Feedmill (MAIN), and Multibreeder Adirama (MBAI), they are all good and profitable companies. Luckily, these four companies are listed on the Stock Exchange so we can buy their shares. Only the latter, MBAI, has delisted from the exchange after it was acquired by JPFA.

Petrosea, part 2

Some of you may already know that Mr. Lo Hong Kheng (LKH), the most famous individual investor in Indonesia, holds shares of Petrosea (PTRO) in substantial amounts, ie 65.9 million pieces of shares, equivalent to 6.5% of the total outstanding shares of the company. If LKH bought PTRO at current price, ie Rp1,290 per share, then he has invested at least Rp85 billion or about US$ 8 million in this subsidiary of Indika Group. Although these funds may be only a fraction of the total assets of him, but of course you can not call it a dime. The question is, what is so interesting about this stock?

Petrosea

This week I have take attention to Petrosea (PTRO) that continues to declining lately, especially after its stocksplit with a ratio of 1 : 10 in last March. When this article was written, PTRO was at the position of 2,075, so if counted from the last six months, PTRO already lost more than half of its market value, precisely 52.0%. But from the fundamental side, PTRO’s financial performance was actually good in the First Half of 2012, where the company recorded US$ 21 million of net profit that is reflects 26.2% of ROE. So, what’s wrong with the stock?

What is Tapering? Is it Good or Bad?

This December may be the 'anxious months' for investors and traders, as there are several issues that feared would cause further decline of Jakarta Composite Index, whereas its position was already low. One such issue is the problem of tapering, and that is what we will discuss in this article.

Basic Fundamental Analysis of Banking

When I made an ebook about methods of fundamental analysis, I forgot to tell you that there are some companies that have a structure of financial statement that is somewhat different from the usual. In the ebook, I show you the example of Unilever Indonesia (UNVR), and that's the view of financial statements in general. However, for companies in the field of financial services, like banking, multifinance, insurance, etc., the structure of the statement is not like it (although the essence is the same), so that you need to read it a bit differently. This article will discuss the issue.

Understanding the BI Rate

Early last month, the central bank of Indonesia, Bank Indonesia (BI) announced an increase in the BI rate to be 6.75%, from the previous 6.50%. What is the BI rate? Why it is increased? And how it would affect the JCI? Although I do believe that most of you are already understand ‘bout this, but hopefully this article can shed some light for those who do not yet get it.

Quantitative Easing, and its Effect on JCI

A few days ago, the central bank of Japan (Bank of Japan/BOJ) announced the quantitative easing (QE) policy, in which the BOJ would inject funds worth a total of US$ 1.4 trillion to the economy of the Sakura country. This amount is equivalent to the amount of money in circulation in Japan, so the QE policy will make the outstanding amount becomes doubled. According to BOJ Governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, the policy aims to re-grow the economy, which stagnant for more than a decade by the lack of the amount of money circulating in the community. The inflation rate in Japan itself has already minus aka defltaion in the past 15 years. 

An Easy Example of Value Investing

When you want to buy a car and you have budget of Rp150 million, then what kind of car would you choose? You may choose Toyota Avanza, Daihatsu Xenia, Nissan Grand Livina, or Suzuki Ertiga. But what if I told you that with the funds, you may be able to obtain a Kijang Innova that its original price was around Rp200 to 250 million? 

Krakatau Steel

In the IDX, the sector of iron and steel is not so popular if compared to other metal sectors such as nickel and tin. The cause is because Indonesia is not among the country's largest steel producer in the world, such as India and China. Therefore, companies in the business of iron and steel in this country is only a few, and Krakatau Steel is the only major player in Indonesia in this field. In the fist half 2010, the company recorded total assets of Rp 13.3 trillion, or about US$ 1.4 billion.

Overview of the Indonesian Economy

Last Friday, August 23, 2013, the Government through the President and related Ministries announced a package of policies to save the economy, including the monetary policy from Bank Indonesia (BI) as a monetary authority, to address the weakening Rupiah that had reached the level of Rp11,000 per U.S. Dollar. When viewed from the policy package name of 'saving the economy', the ultimate goal of this policy package is certainly not merely to avert Rupiah not to fall again, or to address the decline in the stock market (JCI) that occurred lately, but to save the economy of Indonesia as a whole. But it might as well raise the question, what is actually happen with our economy?

Chairul Tanjung

If you are quite active in the market, you might be familiar with names such as Aburizal Bakrie, Hary Tanoesoedibjo, James T. Riady, Franky Wijaya, Anthoni Salim, and Edwin Soerjadjaja. Yup, they are the few who dominate the capital market in Indonesia. Each of them is the owner of Bakrie Group, Bhakti Group, Lippo Group, Sinarmas Group, Salim Group, and the Astra Group (But Astra has already sold to Jardine Matheson, the Hong Kong-based investment group). And they also included in the richest people in Indonesia. Then, where is the position of Chairul Tanjung?

Harum Energy

When Berau Coal Enery (BRAU), a coal company, decided to hold IPO sometimes ago, some analysts slightly questioned the decision. It was because regardless of BRAU’s fundamental sector itself, coal sector in Indonesia was on the bad state lately. On the late 2009, most of the coal companies in Indonesia were enjoying the increase in revenue and net income significantly, which was supported by the increase in the price of coal. But in the first quarter 2010, the coal companies’ revenue started to decline, along with the sluggishness of production volume, and the decline was still continued until the first half 2010.

Indofood CBP

Indofood Sukses Makmur (INDF) is identical with Indomie, because it’s its flagship product, which until today, it seems that there is no rival to that (Wings Food indeed tries to replace Indomie with Mie Sedaap, but so far apparently has not been successful). But actually, the business coverage of INDF is broader than just merely selling the instant noodle with Indomie as its brand. As the name implies: Indofood. INDF is one of the largest integrated food producers companies in Indonesia, that control the food sector from upstream to the downstream.

Understanding the Stock Trading Suspension

You may have bought a stock, and then when you are about to sell it, you can’t. After you check it, it turns out that the stock you bought exposed to suspension aka cannot be traded in certain period, so that automatically, you cannot sell it because the stock exchange authority (the IDX) doesn’t allow any transaction relating to the sale and purchase of shares that you hold. Then, it’s reasonable if you panic in such situation, because your money status that is stuck in the stock becomes unclear (if you only experience loss, it is still tolerable). But is thus your funds really disappear just like that? Here’s the explanation.

An Easy Way to Determine Support and Resistance

If you read the stock recommendation on the newspaper or internet media, there are often words like this: ‘We predict that Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) today will move in range 3,087 – 3,217’. Well, you must be understand that the smallest number, which is 3,087, is called as support point, while the biggest number, which is 3,127, is called as resistance number. So, how does a security analyst define the support and resistance points? It turns out to be an easy way. You can do it yourself, even in just seconds.

Pelat Timah Nusantara

Pelat Timah Nusantara aka Latinusa (NIKL) is one of those companies in IDX that recorded significant increase in its net income on first half 2010 compared to first half 2009, which reached up to 480.9%, or almost 5 times larger. Because the numbers look so fantastic, then maybe some of you tempted to buy the stock. NIKL issued its financial statement on 27 July, with the stock position on 315 at that time. But why since that date, the stock didn’t go up? When this article was written, NIKL was on the position of 305.

How to Read the News from Companies

Let’s say you have plan to buy a house. If a property agent come to see you and offer a house at the price of Rp400 million, while you know that the market price of the house is only Rp300 million, will you take the offer? Of course not. But how if the agent said because there are certain reason such as the strategic location, building quality, etc, then the house will worth Rp500 million in one next year. Therefore, if you buy the house at the price of Rp400 million, then you will get profit of Rp100 million. How’s that? Then you probably started to be tempted to buy the house, although the price is more expensive than it should be.

Berlian Laju Tanker, part 2

Yesterday, management of Berlian Laju Tanker (BLTA) announced the result of right issue. And as we have discussed in previous article, the right issue indeed wasn’t absorbed by the market entirely, but only about 74% (of Rp1.2 trillion), and the rest of it was bought by the standby buyer (link). According to the management’ opinion, the 74% was consistent with the initial target, so there’s nothing to worry about.

Berlian Laju Tanker

Lately, the market is made to be worry by the decline of one of the exceptional shares in its sector. Berlian Laju Tanker (BLTA) is undoubtedly the biggest shipping company in Indonesia. So, it doesn’t feel ‘right’ if you don’t collect the company’s stock. Moreover, on the first quarter 2010, BLTA succeeded to record net income of US$25 million, from previous loss of US$73 million. But why did the stock continued to fall? And why in the last month (since early June), the decrease became more and more drastic? When this article was written, BLTA slumped in position of 240, after previously in stable position of 340.

Berau and Benakat: What the Hell?

Judging from the production volume on 2009, Berau Coal Energy (BRAU) is the fourth largest coal company in Indonesia, after the combination of Arutmin and Kaltim Prima Coal (both subsidiaries of Bumi Resources), Adaro, and Kideco (subsidiary of Indika Energy). On 2009, Bumi Resources recorded coal production volume of 57 million tons, Adaro recorded 41 million tons, Kideco was 25 million tons, and BRAU was 14 million tons. BRAU was greater than Indominco Mandiri (the subsidiary of Indo Tambangraya, which recorded 12 million tons), and PT Bukit Asam (11 million tons). It looks like BRAU is a serious coal company, should be like that.

Tempo Scan Pacific

From the fundamental quality side, Tempo Scan Pacific (TSPC) is actually quite equal to Kalbe Farma (KLBF), but the stock isn’t much liquid. However, its non-liquidity factor also causes the valuation of TSPC to be less expensive than KLBF, and the stock might be interesting to be noticed after it continued to fall lately, with the total decline of almost 30% in the last six months. Although there are so many undervalue stocks on the exchange currently, but TSPC is also considered interesting to be noticed, considering the type of its sector that is safe from the negative sentiment, and the movement of shares is not too influenced by fluctuations of the composite index (the beta is less than 1), which now remains bearish.

Bakrie & Bank Capital, Part 2

Sometimes ago, management from B7's companies and Benakat Petroleum (BIPI) spoke about the bogus deposits funds in Bank Capital (BACA). The most striking one of course Bakrie Sumatra Plantations (UNSP). UNSP recorded to save more that Rp3.5 trillion of cash funds in form of deposit in BACA, and it was the biggest amount among the other companies (not including BNBR). And what was the management said? That there was ‘unsynchronized of data between UNSP and BACA was just merely an administrative error, because of the gap of financial recording time. Simply, it was just a mistype. Whether it was acceptable excuse? You can judge for yourself.

Bakrie & Bank Capital: The Tip of an Iceberg?

Last Friday, Jakarta Compiste Index (JCI) was closed at the position of 2,992, or 8 point more to reach 3,000. That increase seemed quite odd, so on the next trading day (today), JCI started to weakened, and when this article was written, JCI has fell 0.89% into position of 2,966. Actually, JCI could have been reach 3,000 (in average), yet it didn’t happen. Why?

Understanding the Price to Book Value

If you would like to buy a business place, let’s say a restaurant at the price of Rp1 billion, and you have the money, then what will you do? Of course you will buy it, right? But what if you only have Rp500 million? Then you can look for partners so that the money will be collected amounted to Rp1 billion. Let’s say you got two partners who respectively deposit Rp200 million and Rp300 million. Therefore, the revenue from the restaurant will be divided by three, where you will get 50%, and your partners respectively will get 20% and 30%.

Hary Tanoe vs Mbak Tutut, part 2

Along with the increasingly heated conflict between Hary Tanoe with Mbak Tutut, plus the case of Sisminbakum, some of the Bhakti Group shares started to fall massively. The most attention is of course Media Nusantara Citra (MNCN), and Bhakti Investama (BHIT), because of all the Bhakti Group shares listed on the exchange, only those two shares that have liquid transaction volume. I've ever told you to noted the MNCN, because MNCN has the opportunity to strengthened if at any time this case is over. But strangely, it seems that most people prefer to watch BHIT rather than MNCN.

IPO Prospect of Garuda Indonesia

Currently you are probably concerned with the IPO. After yesterday two companies namely Skybee (SKYB) and Golden Retailindo (GOLD) officially listing on the Stock Exchange (IDX), today two other companies are also scheduled to enter the stock exchange. They are Bank Jabar Banten and Indopoly. All these newcomers are attractive enough to be used as speculation tool, because almost all of the stock will experience a very high price volatility on their first trading day. And that was also experienced by SKYB and GOLD that rose fairly great yesterday. But those companies are relatively small so they are not so attractive for you the blue chip players. Well, one of the companies that will also enter the exchange and potentially become a member of bluchip because the size is great enough, is Garuda Indonesia.

Hary Tanoe vs Mbak Tutut

If you look at the three television stations, RCTI, TPI, and GlobalTV lately, then you will find that almost every day or even every moment, the screen below it shown news in running text form as usual running displayed by Metro TV. Its content is primarily a matter of dispute of TPI ownership between Hary Tanoesoedibjo and Ms Siti Hardiyanti Rukmana alias Mbak Tutut, where the points highlighted is the defense towards Hary Tanoe and discredit against Mbak Tutut.

Understanding the Stock Buyback

Maybe you have read this news on the media: PT Abcd had  a buyback plan on its shares in the market. What is buyback? I’m sure you have already known: Buyback is re-purchase of the issued and outstanding shares in the market, by the company itself. But what does it means? And what’s its influence towards the shares price of the related company?

IPO Prospect of Sido Muncul

The IPO of an PT Sido Muncul seems quite interesting to be noted, not only because the great name of the company, but also because it is very interesting sector of the company, which is herbal pharmacy/drugs or what is usually called as medicinal herbs (‘jamu’ in Indonesian). As we’ve known, pharmacy sector is one of the most profitable sectors in Indonesia, and Sido Muncul is seems to be one of the best players in this sector. On the full year 2012, the company recorded net income of Rp388 billion, which reflected return on asset (ROA) of 18.0%. For comparison, on the same period, Kalbe Farma (KLBF), which can be considered as the best pharmacy company in IDX, also recorded ROA of 18.8%.

Asia Natural Resources

If we take a look at the market lately, I wonder why there’re so many rumor about certain stock that is associated with mining sector. For example, PT Nothing Company will acquire a coal company, and so on. Then, the related stock is said to be pulled by the stock maker in certain position. The most frequently one that has deceived many people is Bhakti Investama (BHIT). However, BHIT is not the only one. One of the stocks that become a lively discussion  lately because it is said to be engaged in the mining business is Asia Natural Resources (ASIA). Hmm…whether the prospect real? Or it’s merely just the work for fun aka speculation?

IPO Prospect of Bank Jabar Banten

As you have known, one of the most popular regional banks, Bank Jabar Banten, will hold Initial Public Offering (IPO) for its 20% of stock, which is as much as 1.8 billion shares with nominal of Rp250 per share. The IPO will be held on the next June 5^th. Bank Jabar Banten will be listing on the exchange, starting from July 8, 2010, with ticker of BJBR (if I’m not mistaken). How’s the prospect? Is it worth to be collected?

Bhakti Investama as a Holding Company

Although I have been regularly discuss about Bhakti Investama (BHIT) in this blog, but the question about the stock still continues to come. One of the biggest questions is about whether BHIT still capable to rise on this June? Because after a long-awaited moment, BHIT remained sedentary although its transaction volume was above 100 million shares per day. Currently, BHIT still stuck in the position of 146.

Bakrie Seven Brothers, Nowadays

During the year 2009, especially after Indonesia stock exchange awakens from the impact of global crisis in 2008, the IDX is mastered by the member of the seven brothers (B7). The trading volume of the seven stocks was so big, that from the total transaction value that happened in one day in the exchange, more than a half involving them. So that finally the movements of this B7 became a reference for investor to buy, hold, or sell. However, in 2010, the group is losing its magical power. What is going on? This article is important to be read if you hold one or two shares of B7 member.

Telkom

Today, Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM) is decreasing by 1.94%, relatively small compared to the declining of other blue chip members, but that is because TLKM has decline a lot before. As the price is now at 7,600, TLKM has gone down rapidly during last one year, precisely about 22.4% from its peak position at 9,800 which was reached on December 11^th, 2009. It is implied that TLKM have gone down quite a lot even before IHSG went down dramatically within the last one week.

Retail Sector: MPPA and HERO

As a retail company owned by Lippo Group, Matahari Putra Prima (MPPA) has a quite good performance. But if we see its share price movement, the speculation is so fantastic that you can take a big profit in a short term if you could buy the stock in the right moment. But how if you do the buy in the less precise moment? Fortunately, MPPA dropped dramatically from its top level by the end of April at 1,340. Now, MPPA stood in position 1,020.

Mayora Indah

Mayora Indah (MYOR) is a company who produces sweet food such as peppermint, candy, and biscuit. Its products are often advertised in television so, the products is quite famous for us. Even though its business scope is narrow, in fact, its asset is big enough. MYOR asset has been noted around Rp3.5 trillion at the first quarter of 2010. Similar with the other food producer companies, MYOR’s net profit and income have been increased from time to time. The income of MYOR at the first quarter of 2010 goes up 27.3% and its net profit goes up 67.0% compared to the same period in 2009.

Best Stock in CPO Sector, 2010

At the previous article, I mentioned that the biggest CPO company today based on its asset is UNSP with Rp12.4 trillion. But if we see from the market cap or the company’s price in the market, UNSP is not the biggest company. The biggest CPO company in IDX at the moment is AALI with market cap Rp34.3 trillion, then LSIP with Rp13.3 trillion, and SMAR with Rp12.5 trillion. Then where is UNSP position?

CPO Sector Performance at First Quarter 2010

Every quarter (three months) when the company published quarterly financial report, one of the most question which is often asked by investor is, 'In the same sector, which company has the best performance?' In this blog, I will present the comparison of some companies’ performance in Indonesia in every three months according to the newest financial report. Let’s start from one of the pledge export sectors of Indonesia: Crude Palm Oil (CPO).

Why Should Afraid of the Foreign?

Last week, precisely on Tuesday, 12 November 2013, Bank Indonesia (BI) once again raise the BI rate to be 7.50%, and that decision causes negative response from the market. On that Tuesday, which was followed by the next day, the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) dropped up to the level of 4,200, where the greatest pressure faced by banking and property’s sectors, which was expected to be affected directly by the increase of the rate. When this article was written, JCI started to rise into position of 4,366, yet still has not reach its previous position before the fall.

Adaro Energy

Adaro Energy (ADRO) had attracted us when it noted an increase of net profit about 393.2% at Full Year 2009. Its share also went up to 2,100 - 2,200 even though previously it was corrected till level 1,790. However, it seems that now is the right moment for you, who hold ADRO, to go out. Why?

Bakrie & Brothers's Debts

After the commotion caused by Mr. Hary with its BHIT, this time Bakrie re-emerge after Telkom stated that they would merge Flexi with BTEL’s Esia. Many people suspect that this merge will only bring benefit to BTEL, and inflict a financial loss to TLKM. The reason? It is because BTEL is considered to have lot of debts, where the half of those debts sould be borne by TLKM if the merge is actually made. In addition, BTEL’s owner, Bakrie himself indeed has lots of debts. That also causes Bakrie Seven Brothers (B7) to not rise although its transaction volume was lively lately. The question is, how much Bakrie’s debt today?

Stock Recommendations for Long Term Investment

A stock must have at least the two conditions to be able to be collected in in the long term, ie more than one year, namely: good performance, and reasonable stocks’ movement. The definition of good performance is: generating profits that is constantly increase over time. And what is meant by the reasonable stock movement: the pattern continues to rise over time, according to its fundamental, and free from speculation. This article is important for the long term investor.

Bhakti Investama: An Insight

Bhakti Investama (BHIT) is one of the most popular companies today. In the past week alone, BHIT has aissued at least three important information scattered on various media, such as the conversion of bonds, pier construction in Kalimantan, and the finalization of the acquisition of mines in Papua. If the news from its subsidiaries such as Media Citra Nusantara (MNCN), Global Mediacom (BMTR), and others are included, then it would be quite difficult to keep abreast of the BHIT’s latest news. Exactly what company is BHIT? In this article: 1. Business line, 2. Latest performance review, 3. Future prospect.

Lippo Karawaci: Bond Problem

Lippo Karawaci (LKPR) is one of the companies with the most sought-after financial statement because its status as the largest property company in Indonesia. It is also the only property company that listed as bluchip due to its market cap that was above one billion Dollar. The major assets of this group was finally released its financial statement of First Quarter 2010 on last 31 May. Guess what? Its net profit still steady, and slightly up of 4.3%. But then why did since early April, the stock price continue to fall until today (when this article was written), to only 400?

Stock Market Education

Dear friends, thank you so much for participating in this simple blog by asking a lot of questions, either through comments or email. By then, I know what I should write. Sorry if I could not reply your question one by one. Therefore, once in a while, I'll make an article that contains a collection of your questions as well as the answer. Hopefully this way I can accommodate all the input from you. This article is the first one, check it out!

Cement Stocks Comparison

Cement is one of the most attractive sectors, particularly for long-term player, because they have pretty good fundamental. There are only three cement companies that listed on the IDX, and three of them has quite decent performance. They are Semen Gresik (SMGR), Indocement (INTP), and Holcim Indonesia (SMCB). How did their performance on First Quarter 2010? And which company with good stock to collect? Let’s see then.

Price Earnings Ratio and Price Book Value

Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is one of the most basic measurement of the fundamental analysis. In simple word, PER is a 'comparison between the stock price with net income of the company', in which a company's stock price is compared with the net income generated by the company within a year. Because the focus of the calculation is the net profit that has generated by the company, then by knowing the PER, we can find out if the stock price is considered reasonable or not in real terms and not just in form of a speculation or estimation in the future. Okay, let’s get on with it.

Gading Development

The market may not be friendly with the stocks in the property and construction sector, on the last few months. But what happened to the stock of Gading Development (GAMA) is really a special case. After from June to August it is completely untouched by IHSG correction or correction in the property sector itself, but only in a matter of two weeks, the stock was immediately dropped from 500 to position of 90! Thereby, for those who hold GAMA at the price of 500 and still holding it until now, they have experienced 81.2% of potential loss.

BHIT: The Next BUMI?

Not long ago, it was rumored that stock of Bhakti Investama (BHIT) will be pulled into position of 200, because the company will soon complete its acquisition of the mining company. Well, I can only say: one more unclear news come out from BHIT. Surely, if the shares are pulled by market maker, then BHIT could have returned to the position of 200, but that if it is really pulled.

Moving Average: A Simple Lesson

Because the market seems pretty bad nowadays, it’s better if we take our time to learn a little bit rather than keep an eye on the stock prices. This time I will discuss about moving average, one of the basic techniques in technical analysis to determine whether a stock price has greater opportunity to strengthen, or weaken. Yes, indeed I am a fundamentalist, but of course I also understand technical analysis even just a little bit.

Unilever Indonesia

In IDX, only few companies who can record sales equal to or slightly above its assets’ value. But Unilever Indonesia (UNVR) was able to record its sales value of at least twice of its assets’ value, and that record is consistently stable every year since 2004 without even ever declining! In addition, that outstanding performance continues until today. In First Quarter 2010, UNVR recorded sales of Rp5.0 trillion, which if it is being annualized, it becomes Rp19.9 trillion. Then what is the value of UNVR’s assets? Only Rp8.6 trillion.

Rupiah’s Impairment, and Its Influence towards Property Companies

Judging by its business nature, Rupiah’s exchange rate fluctuation on foreign currency, in this case, US Dollar, has no actual effect towards the performance of property companies/issuers. It is because they earn their income in Rupiah and pay expenses such as contractor fees, and land acquisition in Rupiah as well (there are also some property companies/issuers that import the building materials, but its value is typically small). However, it will be different when the company has dollar-denominated debt, where the value of the accrued interest as well as the principal amount of the debt itself become highly influenced by the fluctuation of Rupiah exchange rate against Dollar.

PGAS, and the Open Access Policy

Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGAS), or you can say National Gas Company, reported that their net profit has increased 4.0% for Nine Months period in 2013, and in general, its performance was very good. However, this fact is not the interesting point that I will disscuss. In the last few days, it was issued in media that Government through BPH Migas (the Oil and Gas Regulatory Agency) would impose an open access policy, where all gas infrastructures which are gas pipes in Indonesia can be used not only by PGAS but also by all parties.

AISA’s Future Chances with KKR

On July 22, 2013, Tiga Pilar Sejahtera Food (AISA) stated that two days ago, some main shareholders agreed to sell their shares to Kohlberg Kravis Roberts (KKR), one of the biggest private equity firms in the world, amounting to 9.5% of the total subscribed and fully paid shares. The value of transaction was undisclosed, but it was issued that it reached $ 40 million. The joining of KKR will help the company to grow, where KKR will put their representative in the board of commissioners. While for KKR, this acquisition becomes their initial step to enter the consumer goods industry in Indonesia.