Sometimes ago, management from B7's companies and Benakat
Petroleum (BIPI) spoke about the bogus deposits funds in Bank Capital (BACA).
The most striking one of course Bakrie Sumatra Plantations (UNSP). UNSP
recorded to save more that Rp3.5 trillion of cash funds in form of deposit in
BACA, and it was the biggest amount among the other companies (not including
BNBR). And what was the management said? That there was ‘unsynchronized of data
between UNSP and BACA was just merely an administrative error, because of the
gap of financial recording time. Simply, it was just a mistype. Whether it
was acceptable excuse? You can judge for yourself.
You can contact the author (Teguh Hidayat) by email, teguh.idx@gmail.com. The author live in Jakarta, Indonesia.
See my activities in Instagram, @teguhidx.
Bakrie & Bank Capital: The Tip of an Iceberg?
Last Friday, Jakarta
Compiste Index (JCI) was closed at the position of 2,992, or 8 point more to reach
3,000. That increase seemed quite odd, so on the next trading day (today), JCI
started to weakened, and when this article was written, JCI has fell 0.89% into
position of 2,966. Actually, JCI could have been reach 3,000 (in average), yet
it didn’t happen. Why?
Understanding the Price to Book Value
If you would like to buy a business place, let’s say
a restaurant at the price of Rp1 billion, and you have the money, then what
will you do? Of course you will buy it, right? But what if you only
have Rp500 million? Then you can look for partners so
that the money will be collected amounted to Rp1 billion. Let’s say you got two
partners who respectively deposit Rp200 million and Rp300 million. Therefore,
the revenue from the restaurant will be divided by three, where you will get
50%, and your partners respectively will get 20% and 30%.
Hary Tanoe vs Mbak Tutut, part 2
Along with the increasingly heated conflict between Hary Tanoe
with Mbak Tutut, plus the case of Sisminbakum, some of the Bhakti Group shares
started to fall massively. The most attention is of course Media Nusantara
Citra (MNCN), and Bhakti Investama (BHIT), because of all the Bhakti Group
shares listed on the exchange, only those two shares that have liquid
transaction volume. I've ever told you to noted the MNCN, because MNCN has
the opportunity to strengthened if at any time this case is over. But strangely,
it seems that most people prefer to watch BHIT rather than MNCN.
IPO Prospect of Garuda Indonesia
Currently you are probably concerned with the IPO. After yesterday
two companies namely Skybee (SKYB) and Golden Retailindo (GOLD) officially
listing on the Stock Exchange (IDX), today two other companies are also
scheduled to enter the stock exchange. They are Bank Jabar Banten and Indopoly.
All these newcomers are attractive enough to be used as speculation tool,
because almost all of the stock will experience a very high price volatility on
their first trading day. And that was also experienced by SKYB and GOLD that
rose fairly great yesterday. But those companies are relatively small so they
are not so attractive for you the blue chip players. Well, one of
the companies that will also enter the exchange and potentially become a member
of bluchip because the size is great enough, is Garuda Indonesia.
Hary Tanoe vs Mbak Tutut
If you look at the three television stations, RCTI, TPI, and
GlobalTV lately, then you will find that almost every day or even every moment,
the screen below it shown news in running text form as usual running
displayed by Metro TV. Its content is primarily a matter of dispute of TPI
ownership between Hary Tanoesoedibjo and Ms Siti Hardiyanti Rukmana alias Mbak
Tutut, where the points highlighted is the defense towards Hary Tanoe and
discredit against Mbak Tutut.
Understanding the Stock Buyback
Maybe you have read this
news on the media: PT Abcd had a buyback
plan on its shares in the market. What is buyback? I’m
sure you have already known: Buyback is re-purchase of the issued and
outstanding shares in the market, by the company itself. But what does it
means? And what’s its influence towards the shares price
of
the related company?
IPO Prospect of Sido Muncul
The
IPO of an PT Sido Muncul seems quite interesting to
be noted, not only because the great name of the company, but also because it
is very interesting sector of the
company, which is herbal pharmacy/drugs or what is
usually called as medicinal herbs (‘jamu’
in Indonesian). As we’ve known, pharmacy sector is one
of the most profitable sectors in Indonesia, and Sido Muncul is seems to be one of the best
players in this sector. On the full year 2012, the company recorded net income of Rp388 billion, which
reflected return on asset (ROA) of 18.0%. For comparison, on the same period,
Kalbe Farma (KLBF), which can be considered as the best pharmacy company in
IDX, also recorded ROA of 18.8%.
Asia Natural Resources
If we take a look at the
market lately, I wonder why there’re so many rumor about certain stock that is
associated with mining sector. For example, PT Nothing Company will acquire a coal
company, and so on. Then, the related stock is said to be pulled by the stock
maker in certain position. The most frequently one that has deceived many
people is Bhakti Investama (BHIT). However, BHIT is not
the only one. One of the stocks that become a lively discussion lately because it is said to be engaged in
the mining business is Asia Natural Resources (ASIA). Hmm…whether the prospect
real? Or it’s merely just the work for fun aka speculation?
IPO Prospect of Bank Jabar Banten
As you have known, one
of the most popular regional banks, Bank Jabar Banten, will hold Initial
Public Offering (IPO) for its 20% of stock, which is as much as 1.8
billion shares with nominal of Rp250 per share. The IPO will be held on the
next June 5th. Bank Jabar Banten will be listing on the exchange,
starting from July 8, 2010, with ticker of BJBR (if I’m not
mistaken). How’s the prospect? Is it worth to be collected?
Bhakti Investama as a Holding Company
Although I have been
regularly discuss about Bhakti Investama (BHIT) in this blog, but the question
about the
stock still continues to come. One of the biggest questions is about
whether BHIT still capable to rise on this June? Because after a long-awaited
moment, BHIT remained sedentary although its transaction volume was above 100
million shares per day. Currently, BHIT still stuck in the position of 146.
Bakrie Seven Brothers, Nowadays
During the year 2009, especially after Indonesia stock exchange awakens from the impact of global crisis in 2008, the IDX
is mastered by the member of the seven brothers (B7). The trading volume of the seven stocks was so big, that
from the total transaction value
that happened in one day in the
exchange, more than a half involving them. So that finally the movements of this B7 became a reference
for investor to buy, hold, or sell. However, in 2010, the group is losing its magical power. What is going on? This article is
important to be read if
you hold one or two shares of B7 member.
Telkom
Today, Telekomunikasi
Indonesia (TLKM) is decreasing by 1.94%,
relatively small compared to the declining of other blue chip members,
but that is because TLKM has decline a lot before. As the
price is now at 7,600, TLKM has gone down rapidly during last one year, precisely about 22.4%
from its peak position at 9,800 which was reached on December 11th, 2009. It is implied that TLKM have gone down quite a lot even
before IHSG went down dramatically within the last one week.
Retail Sector: MPPA and HERO
As a retail company owned by Lippo Group, Matahari Putra Prima
(MPPA) has a quite good performance. But if we see its share price movement,
the speculation is so fantastic that you can take a big profit in a short term if you could buy the stock in the right moment. But how if you do the
buy in the less precise moment? Fortunately,
MPPA dropped dramatically from its top level by the end of April at 1,340. Now,
MPPA stood in position 1,020.
Mayora Indah
Mayora Indah (MYOR) is a company who produces sweet food such as
peppermint, candy, and biscuit. Its products are often advertised in television
so, the products is quite famous for us. Even though its business scope is
narrow, in fact, its asset is big enough. MYOR asset has been noted around Rp3.5
trillion at the first quarter of 2010. Similar with the other food producer
companies, MYOR’s net profit and income have been increased from time to time.
The income of MYOR at the first quarter of 2010 goes up 27.3% and its net
profit goes up 67.0% compared to the same period in 2009.
Best Stock in CPO Sector, 2010
At the previous article, I mentioned that the biggest CPO company
today based on its asset is UNSP with Rp12.4 trillion. But if we see from the
market cap or the company’s price in the market, UNSP is not the biggest
company. The biggest CPO company in IDX at the moment is AALI with market cap Rp34.3
trillion, then LSIP with Rp13.3 trillion, and SMAR with Rp12.5 trillion. Then
where is UNSP position?
CPO Sector Performance at First Quarter 2010
Every quarter (three months) when the company published quarterly financial report,
one of the most question which is often asked by investor is, 'In the same
sector, which company has the best performance?' In this blog, I will present the
comparison of some companies’ performance in Indonesia in every three months
according to the newest financial report. Let’s start from one of the pledge export
sectors of Indonesia: Crude
Palm Oil (CPO).
Why Should Afraid of the Foreign?
Last week, precisely on
Tuesday, 12 November 2013, Bank Indonesia (BI) once again raise the
BI
rate to be 7.50%, and that decision causes negative response from the market.
On that Tuesday, which was followed by the next day, the
Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) dropped up to the level of 4,200, where the greatest
pressure faced by banking and property’s sectors, which was expected to
be affected directly by the increase of the rate. When this article
was written, JCI started to rise into position of 4,366, yet still has not
reach its previous position before the fall.
Adaro Energy
Adaro Energy (ADRO) had attracted us when it noted an increase of
net profit about 393.2% at Full
Year 2009. Its share
also went up to 2,100 - 2,200 even though previously it was corrected till
level 1,790. However, it seems that now is the right moment for you, who hold
ADRO, to go out. Why?
Bakrie & Brothers's Debts
After the commotion
caused by Mr. Hary with its BHIT, this time Bakrie re-emerge after Telkom
stated that they would merge Flexi with BTEL’s Esia. Many people suspect that
this merge will only bring benefit to BTEL, and inflict a financial loss to
TLKM. The reason? It is because BTEL is considered to have lot of debts, where
the half of those debts sould be borne by TLKM if the merge is actually made.
In addition, BTEL’s owner, Bakrie himself indeed has lots of debts. That also
causes Bakrie
Seven Brothers (B7) to not rise although its transaction volume was
lively lately. The question is, how much Bakrie’s debt today?
Stock Recommendations for Long Term Investment
A stock must have at least the two conditions to be able to be collected
in in the long term, ie more than one year, namely: good performance, and reasonable stocks’
movement. The definition of good performance is: generating profits that is
constantly increase over time. And what is meant by the reasonable stock movement:
the pattern continues to rise over time, according to its fundamental, and free
from speculation. This article is important for the long term investor.
Bhakti Investama: An Insight
Bhakti Investama (BHIT)
is one of the most popular companies today. In the past week alone, BHIT has
aissued at least three important information scattered on various media, such
as the conversion of bonds, pier construction in Kalimantan, and the
finalization of the acquisition of mines in Papua. If the news from its
subsidiaries such as Media Citra Nusantara (MNCN), Global Mediacom (BMTR), and others are
included, then it would be quite difficult to keep abreast of the BHIT’s latest
news. Exactly what company is BHIT? In this article: 1. Business line, 2.
Latest performance review, 3. Future prospect.
Lippo Karawaci: Bond Problem
Lippo Karawaci (LKPR) is
one of the companies with the most sought-after financial statement because its
status as the largest property company in Indonesia. It is also the only
property company that listed as bluchip due to its market cap that was above one billion Dollar. The
major assets of this group was finally released its financial statement of First
Quarter 2010 on last 31 May. Guess what? Its net profit still
steady, and slightly up of 4.3%. But then why did since early April, the stock
price continue to fall until today (when this article was written), to only
400?
Stock Market Education
Dear friends, thank you so much for participating in this simple blog by asking a lot of questions, either through comments or email. By then, I know what I should write. Sorry if I could not reply your question one by one. Therefore, once in a while, I'll make an article that contains a collection of your questions as well as the answer. Hopefully this way I can accommodate all the input from you. This article is the first one, check it out!
Cement Stocks Comparison
Cement is one of the
most attractive sectors, particularly for long-term player, because they have
pretty good fundamental. There are only three cement companies that listed on
the IDX, and three of them has quite decent performance. They are Semen Gresik (SMGR),
Indocement (INTP), and Holcim Indonesia (SMCB). How did their performance on First
Quarter 2010? And which company with good stock to collect? Let’s see then.
Price Earnings Ratio and Price Book Value
Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is one of the most basic measurement of
the fundamental analysis. In simple word, PER is a 'comparison between the stock price with net income of the
company', in which a company's stock
price is compared with the net income generated by the company within a year.
Because the focus of the calculation is the net profit that has generated by the
company, then by knowing the PER, we can find out if the stock price is
considered reasonable or not in real terms and not just in form of a
speculation or estimation in the future. Okay, let’s get on with it.
Gading Development
The market may not be friendly
with the stocks
in the property and
construction sector, on the last few months. But what happened to the stock of Gading Development (GAMA) is really a special
case. After from
June to August it is completely untouched by IHSG correction
or correction in
the property sector itself, but only in a matter of
two weeks, the
stock was immediately dropped from 500 to
position of 90! Thereby,
for those who hold
GAMA at the price
of 500 and still holding it until now,
they have experienced 81.2% of potential loss.
BHIT: The Next BUMI?
Not long ago, it was
rumored that stock of Bhakti Investama (BHIT) will be
pulled into position of 200,
because the company will soon complete its acquisition of the mining company.
Well, I can only say: one more unclear news come out from BHIT. Surely, if the
shares are pulled by market maker, then BHIT could have
returned to the position of 200, but that if it is really pulled.
Moving Average: A Simple Lesson
Because the market seems pretty bad nowadays, it’s
better if we take our time to learn a little bit rather than keep an eye on the
stock prices. This time I will discuss about moving average, one of the basic
techniques in technical analysis to determine whether a stock price has greater
opportunity to strengthen, or weaken. Yes, indeed I am a fundamentalist, but of course I also understand technical
analysis even just a little bit.
Unilever Indonesia
In IDX, only few companies who can record sales equal to or
slightly above its assets’ value. But Unilever Indonesia (UNVR) was able to
record its sales value of at least twice of its assets’ value, and that record
is consistently stable every year since 2004 without even ever declining! In
addition, that outstanding performance continues until today. In First Quarter 2010, UNVR recorded sales of Rp5.0 trillion, which if it is being annualized,
it becomes Rp19.9 trillion. Then what is the value of UNVR’s assets? Only Rp8.6
trillion.
Rupiah’s Impairment, and Its Influence towards Property Companies
Judging by its business nature,
Rupiah’s exchange rate fluctuation on foreign currency, in this case, US
Dollar, has no actual effect towards the performance of property
companies/issuers. It is because they earn their income in Rupiah and pay
expenses such as contractor fees, and land acquisition in Rupiah as well (there
are also some property companies/issuers that import the building materials,
but its value is typically small). However, it will be different when the
company has dollar-denominated debt, where the value of the accrued interest as
well as the principal amount of the debt itself become highly influenced by the
fluctuation of Rupiah exchange rate against Dollar.
PGAS, and the Open Access Policy
Perusahaan
Gas Negara (PGAS), or you can say National Gas Company, reported that their net profit has increased
4.0% for Nine Months period in 2013, and in
general, its
performance was very good. However, this fact is not the interesting point that
I will disscuss. In the last few days, it was issued in media that
Government through BPH Migas (the Oil and
Gas Regulatory Agency) would impose an open access policy, where all gas infrastructures
which are gas pipes in Indonesia
can be used not only by PGAS but also by all parties.
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