Hary Tanoe vs Mbak Tutut, part 2

Along with the increasingly heated conflict between Hary Tanoe with Mbak Tutut, plus the case of Sisminbakum, some of the Bhakti Group shares started to fall massively. The most attention is of course Media Nusantara Citra (MNCN), and Bhakti Investama (BHIT), because of all the Bhakti Group shares listed on the exchange, only those two shares that have liquid transaction volume. I've ever told you to noted the MNCN, because MNCN has the opportunity to strengthened if at any time this case is over. But strangely, it seems that most people prefer to watch BHIT rather than MNCN.

If we discuss about TPI case comprehensively, then this article will become very long. So let’s discuss the point that has correlation with the shares movement of Bhakti Group only. Previously, we have discussed that although the opponent is quite strong, but probably in the end, Mr. Hary will be the winner of this dispute, because however, he’s the one who got the weapon (media). But it seems that Mbak Tutut is not that easy to be defeated, because apparently, she also has an arsenal. What is that?

The weapon of Mbak Tutut is the case of Sisminbakum. That case has dragged Hartono Tanoe as the suspect. Because Hartono Tanoe is the brother of Mr. Hary, then there is no guarantee that Mr. Hary did not engaged in the same case. Lately, arise confession from Mr. Yohanes Waworuntu, the director of the company that manage Sisminbakum since 2001, that essentially makes Mr. Hary discredited even further.

Not only TPI, lately Mbak Tutut was also questioning the ownership status of Citra Marga Nusaphala (CMNP), a highway operator company that belongs to Bhakti Group that was formerly owned by the Cendana Family. Consequently, Mr. Hary is getting busy to maintain his assets. If later Sisminbakum case really drag him, then it won’t be impossible that Mbak Tutut will also questioned the ownership status of other Bhakti Group’s assets. Because indeed, most of Bhakti Group’s assets today was formerly owned by Cendana Family. For example is Bimantara, which now  changed its name into Global Mediacom (BMTR), was formerly owned by Bambang Trihatmodjo, brother of Mbak Tutut.

The conclusion? Whoever the winner, but it seems that this case will not be completed in the near future. But there may also be an additional round to decide the winner. It means that the correction faced by MNCN, BHIT, and other Bhakti Group’s shares, also not going to stop in the near future.

And that can be seen from MNCN’s movement that hasn’t moved from the range of 330 - 350. When this article was written, MNCN weakened 5 point into position of 340. Since early July, MNCN moved sideways in the range of 330 - 350 after before that fell from the position of 435. It means that MNCN has weakened 21.8%. Up until today, there is no sign of MNCN to strengthened back.

But MNCN’s fate still better than BHIT. When this article was written, BHIT returned to weaken 2.86% into position of 102. If calculated from the date of MNCN’s fall that was 23 June, then BHIT has weakened 28.7% from position of 143 to 102. The bigger impairment of MNCN was due to BHIT that doesn’t have fundamental as strong as MNCN.

But the small amount of BHIT now make some of the investors who like to speculate curious: whether this is the right time to enter into BHIT? Whether later BHIT will rise into position of 150 or even 200? If you are also curious, then it is reasonable because BHIT had ever gave a big benefit for the investors when its shares suddenly rose on last February. It is not impossible if BHIT without any indication beforehand, suddenly strengthen massively.

But I warned you once again: Now is not the right time to enter into BHIT, because when Mr. Harry busily conflicted like now, then BHIT almost has no chance to strengthened. But the trend will continue to decline to the position of 50 and will not going back up. Why so?

So, here’s how. Usually, if the owner is busy with the disputes, then BHIT’s shares cannot be manipulated naturally so that it will continue to fall into its lowest position, as its status as blank company (read again this link). The same thing also happens to BNBR that continues to fall from the position of 144 into the position in the range of 52 - 58, because Mr. Ical was busily deal with the creditors who collect the debt. It’s not impossible that BHIT will has the same fate, if Mr. Hary cannot solve his dispute with Mbak Tutut quickly.

How about BHIT’s debt repayment plan and the others? Whatever it is, it won’t have much effect! This time, Mr. Harry more concentrates to maintain its assets rather that cooking up the shares price. Unfortunately, BHIT won’t be able to go up if not cooked, because BHIT is only a blank holding company. It is different from MNCN that still has the chance to strengthen at anytime, because the fundamental is far stronger.

So, even though BHIT is interesting for speculation, but the risks are too great, after all. If you like to speculate, so do not be discouraged because there are many other stocks that are safer to be played than BHIT.

Original article was written on July 12, 2010.