As you have known, one
of the most popular regional banks, Bank Jabar Banten, will hold Initial
Public Offering (IPO) for its 20% of stock, which is as much as 1.8
billion shares with nominal of Rp250 per share. The IPO will be held on the
next June 5th. Bank Jabar Banten will be listing on the exchange,
starting from July 8, 2010, with ticker of BJBR (if I’m not
mistaken). How’s the prospect? Is it worth to be collected?
Although the basic price
is only 250, the specified offering price is quite high, which is 510 - 680, and the percentage
of the share released can increase to 30% if the market’s response is good.
Hmm… how can it be so confident? Does BJBR’s
performance is good and quite promising?
If we look at its
balance sheet, BJBR has quite steady upward trend in performance. Its assets on
full year 2009 was reached Rp32.4 trillion, with equity of Rp3.1 trillion, and
the rest of it is the liabilities. BJBR’s assets, equity, and liabilities
increase of 24% (in average) than in 2008. If we look at the increase trend on
the last five years, BJBR always recorded equity rise above 20% every year,
except for 2008, which was only 14.0%. If averaged, its assets were also rose 20%
every year. BJBR never recorded decrease in certain point in the balance sheet,
at least not on the last five years. Well, judging from here, it looks like
BJBR is actually good.
Then how about the
income statement? BJBR’s income in the last two years indeed increase above
20%, although in the last five years, BJBR had recorded an increase in revenue
of 3.2% on 2007 (it seems that 2007 is a hard year for BJBR). But overall,
BJBR’s revenue was always increase every year. The operating profit and the net
income were also always increasing with greater percentage every year. That
increase becomes greater particularly in the last two years, but the peak is in
2008. On 2008, BJBR’s net income increase of 46.3%, while on 2009 it only
increased by 30.8%.
However, as already
mentioned above, a great increase in profit in 2008 may be due to the performance
of BJBR in 2007 that was slightly decreased. Thus, the performance in 2009
might be called as: not less good as the 2008. So if seen from here, BJBR once
again, looks good. The other important thing to be observed is the CAR
position. On 2009, BJBR’s CAR was 20.9%. pretty good!
If BJBR is released on
its highest price, which is Rp680 per share, was it a reasonable price?
Because number of total
shares placed by BJBR is 8.7 billion
shares, then the price of 860 will result a market cap of Rp5.3 trillion or 1.7
times of BJBR’s equity (per 31 December 2009).
And because BJBR’s net income
is Rp709 billion, then the PER was 5.3 times. If we use the top three banks
namely BMRI, BBCA, and BBRI as comparison, then fundamentally, BJBR seems very
cheap. But note this: it must be differentiated because those three banks are
national bank, while BJBR is only regional bank.
Meanwhile, if we reflect
on the banks that had held IPO, such as BBTN, then BJBR is worth to be
collected. Why so? It is because BJBR has much in common with BBTN. BBTN’s
performance is roughly as good as BJBR. Its size if judging from the asset side
is also similar (although actually not really. BBTN’s final position was Rp56
trillion, while BJBR was only Rp32 trillion). But it was pretty close when
compare to the top three banks above whose assets are over hundreds of
trillion). Both BJBR and BBTN have specialization respectively, promising a
consistent profit. BJBR is the bank of the civil servants in the region of West
Java and Banten, while BBTN is the bank for those who would like to get a
housing credit. Well, BBTN’s stock price at IPO on last February soared from
8,00 to 1,650 before now it's on the position between 1,300-1,400. It’s not
impossible for BJBR to experience the same thing.
The conclusion? BJBR is
indeed worthy to be collected, particularly for those who haven’t had banking
stock collection, because besides has quite big name, the performance is also
fine. There is a chance for BJBR to boost up into the level of 1,000 (in
average) on the next three months.
Performance rating on
full year 2009: AA
Stock rating on 680: AA
Stock rating on 510: AAA
Original article was
written on June 15, 2010.
No comments:
Post a Comment